ICM translates a chip stack into its expected share of the prize pool. Because chips lose value as you accumulate them, ICM often makes folding a mathematically strong hand the correct play near the bubble or at a final table.
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The Independent Chip Model converts tournament chips into money. It exists because chips are not cash: doubling your stack does not double your prize expectation, since only one player takes first and everyone who outlasts a rival moves up the ladder for free. ICM prices every stack as a share of the remaining prize pool given all the stacks at the table, which is why the same all-in can be correct in a cash game and a disaster on a bubble.
Let stack sizes, not card strength, lead the decision near a pay jump. As the shortest stack you have the least to protect, so you can push wider; as a mid stack with short stacks still alive, folding hands that are mathematically ahead is often correct because busting costs more than the chips win. Big stacks should attack medium stacks, who cannot call without risking their tournament, and leave the very short stacks to blind out. Final-table deal negotiations should be priced the same way — from ICM equity, never from chip percentages.
Calling an all-in on the bubble because the hand is "ahead". Being a 55% favourite in chips can still be a clear ICM fold when busting costs a pay jump. The reverse error is a big stack folding to a medium stack out of caution and giving up the free pressure that ICM hands it.
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