Bluff — Poker Term Explained

A bluff is a bet made with a hand that cannot win at showdown, priced so that folding is a reasonable response. The maths is simple: a bet of half the pot needs to work about 33% of the time to break even, a pot-sized bet about 50%. That is why bluff sizing is a decision about how often you need a fold, not about how strong you want to look. A semi-bluff is the stronger relative: a bet with a hand that is behind now but can improve, so it wins two different ways.

Pick bluffing candidates by what they cannot do at showdown and what they can become. The best bluffs have no showdown value and some equity — a backdoor draw, a gutshot, an overcard with a blocker. Bluff more on boards that favour your range and against opponents whose fold-to-c-bet is high; bluff far less into a player who calls everything, because a bluff needs a folder to work. Keep a rough ratio in mind on the river: roughly two value hands for every bluff at half-pot sizing keeps you unexploitable enough for practical purposes.

Bluffing hands that could have won by checking. Turning a weak pair or a busted-but-live ace into a bluff throws away the times it is good, and it is the most expensive habit in low-stakes poker. The second mistake is bluffing the one opponent at the table who never folds.

• Half-pot bluff must work about 33% of the time to break even
• Pot-sized bluff must work about 50% of the time
• Two-thirds-pot bluff must work about 40% of the time
• River guideline: roughly 2 value bets per bluff at half-pot sizing